Macro & Markets | Reza Ghanipour

#Bitcoin — Bearish Bias The current market structure still suggests downside potential in my view. My primary scenario is a continuation of the correction toward lower levels, unless price breaks and holds above the invalidation zone, which would invalidate the bearish thesis. This is a scenario, not a certainty. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ @RezaMacroEdge

So far, with 88% of S&P 500 companies having reported their Q2 earnings, year-over-year earnings growth has reached an astonishing 50.4%. To put that number into perspective, analysts had previously expected earnings growth of roughly 23%. That means actual earnings growth is now more than twice the original estimate. If this trend holds, the S&P 500 will record its second consecutive quarter of earnings growth abov…

Over the past decade, every major fiat currency has lost more than 98% of its value against Bitcoin. The Japanese yen recorded the worst performance, declining by approximately 99.4% versus Bitcoin. The Swiss franc performed the best among major fiat currencies—yet it still lost nearly 98.8% of its value relative to Bitcoin. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ @RezaMacroEdge

If you only look at the price chart, you might think gold's bull market is over. But the gold ETF data tells a different story. Since February 2026, gold prices have fallen by about 16%, while total gold ETF holdings have declined by only 3%. That suggests this isn't a broad investor exodus. In a typical bear market, it's not just prices that fall—investors also sell aggressively and capital leaves the market. So f…

Money printing is not neutral. When an economy isn't generating real growth in goods and services, creating new money doesn't create new wealth—it simply redistributes existing wealth. Those who receive newly created money first can spend it before prices adjust. By the time that money spreads through the economy, prices have risen, leaving people with fixed incomes or those who receive the new money last with less …

Since 1900, every major government-issued currency has lost purchasing power relative to gold. For the first time in history, all major currencies are fiat—backed by neither a commodity standard nor strict limits on money creation. But you don't have to rely solely on a fiat system; you can choose your own personal gold standard. Since 2010, central banks have been net buyers of more than 7,000 tonnes of gold, whil…

This chart presents one of the most interesting long-term valuation models for Bitcoin, based on the Power Law. Unlike models such as Stock-to-Flow (the one I discussed in my previous analysis), which focus primarily on Bitcoin's supply, the Power Law model assumes that as the Bitcoin network grows over time, its price tends to fluctuate within a well-defined logarithmic channel. The blue line represents Bitcoin's …

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This chart is frequently referenced in macroeconomics, but interpreting it isn't always straightforward. So what does it actually show? It measures how far the real price of Brent crude oil has deviated from its long-term trend. Notice the word real. The chart uses inflation-adjusted oil prices rather than nominal prices. A barrel of oil priced at $100 in 2022 does not have the same purchasing power as a $100 barre…

Surge in energy prices suggests high probability of recession ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ @RezaMacroEdge

ADAUSDT ⚠️long inter: 0/1500 tp: 0/1590 - 0/1635 - 0/1725 - 0/1950 risk free: 0/1545 sl: 0/1455 ⚠️ risk: 1% ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ @ScalpTradingForex

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