🚨重大异动:WTI九月上探100美元概率一日升12个百分点 不到一天,WTI原油九月触及100美元的定价从47.5%跳到59.5%,单日上升12.0个百分点。Yes现在为59.5%,No为40.5%。此前还不足半数的100美元关口,已变成九月原油市场更偏向上的结果。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184

Channel
Polymarket信息分享
@polym8
On this record: Topic · Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Posts · Citations · Handles named that no longer answer · Cite this entry
33,162subscribers
+760 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 31,623–100,000.
Register entry
| Telegram ID | -1001593149911 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @polym8 |
| Created | Between 1 August 2021 and 28 February 2023 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated. |
| First recorded | 7 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 15 September 2026 |
| Measurements held | 32 |
| Confirmed unchanged | 1 time, most recently 15 September 2026 |
| On Telegram | t.me/polym8 |
Topic
Crypto & trading — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 9 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 53% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and why it has no browse page of its own yet.
Growth
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Sept 2026, 13:38 | 33,162 | -350 |
| 13 Sept 2026, 23:40 | 33,512 | -395 |
| 12 Sept 2026, 08:59 | 33,907 | -334 |
| 10 Sept 2026, 08:40 | 34,241 | -689 |
| 7 Sept 2026, 06:18 | 34,930 | +1,419 |
| 4 Sept 2026, 15:14 | 33,511 | -304 |
| 3 Sept 2026, 01:06 | 33,815 | -1,031 |
| 2 Sept 2026, 02:12 | 34,846 | -154 |
| 1 Sept 2026, 04:19 | 35,000 | -112 |
| 31 Aug 2026, 03:07 | 35,112 | -128 |
| 30 Aug 2026, 05:34 | 35,240 | -336 |
| 29 Aug 2026, 04:33 | 35,576 | -336 |
| 28 Aug 2026, 08:04 | 35,912 | -423 |
| 27 Aug 2026, 05:36 | 36,335 | -181 |
| 26 Aug 2026, 05:15 | 36,516 | -372 |
| 25 Aug 2026, 08:14 | 36,888 | -277 |
| 24 Aug 2026, 08:36 | 37,165 | +7,615 |
| 22 Aug 2026, 13:07 | 29,550 | +3,632 |
| 21 Aug 2026, 03:18 | 25,918 | -129 |
| 20 Aug 2026, 06:37 | 26,047 | first reading |
Engagement
1,208 posts held, back to 6 August 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 70 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
- ERR · 30 days
- 6.98%
- avg views ÷ 33,162 subscribers
- Avg views / post
- 2,320
- 838 posts measured
- Reaction rate
- —
- this channel exposes no reaction counts
- Posts in window
- 839
- of 1,208 held
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.
| Window | Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 10 September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Posts held | 1,208 (6 August 2026 – 10 September 2026) |
| Views total | 1,940,131 |
| Reactions total | — |
| Forwards / comments | not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated |
| Readings taken | 10 Sept 2026, 01:48 UTC |
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
What this channel posts
- Video runtime
- 4m 00s
- Average length
- 10s
Measured directly from 23 videos with a duration reading, out of the posts we hold for this channel — not this channel’s whole posting history, only the sample this register has actually read. An exact reading to the second, taken from the post itself rather than from Telegram’s own rounded chrome, so it carries no ≈ mark.
Recent posts
🚨重大异动:比特币9月10日站上8万美元概率跌至6% 比特币9月10日站上8万美元的Yes概率,24小时内从24.5%降至6.0%。这跌去18.5个百分点,No一侧当前为94.0%,双方概率差88.0个百分点。按当前定价,市场几乎完全押注比特币不会在该日站上8万美元。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🚨重大异动:ETH站上2500美元概率24小时骤降28个百分点 预测市场显示,以太坊9月10日站上2500美元的Yes概率,24小时内从47.5%回落至19.5%,下降28.0个百分点。当前No一侧为80.5%,双方概率差扩大到61.0个百分点。原本接近对半的定价,已转向明显偏向下方。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
⏰临近结算:NIP胜率回落至62.5%,对FOKUS领先缩窄 NIP对FOKUS的BO3临近结算,NIP胜率从24小时前的68.0%回落至62.5%,下跌5.5个百分点。当前FOKUS一侧为37.5%,双方差距缩至25个百分点。盘面仍未冻结,临门一脚前领先方的定价出现松动。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
⚡️快讯:伊朗-阿曼霍尔木兹协议10月底前达成概率升至50.5% 预测市场显示,伊朗与阿曼能在10月31日前就霍尔木兹海峡管理达成协议的概率,24小时内从45.0%升至50.5%,上涨5.5个百分点,成功越过50%关口。当前No一侧概率为49.5%,Yes仅领先1个百分点,定价仍处于对半开的胶着区间。市场刚刚完成从偏否定向偏肯定的转向,但优势极薄。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🧠异动解读:AfD州选大胜后,Linke柏林领跑预测升破50% 外媒头条聚焦AfD在东部州选举中的强势表现,但另一个市场却在悄悄改判:Linke赢得2026年柏林州选举最多席位的概率,24小时内从48.5%升至50.5%。当前Yes一侧50.5%,No一侧49.5%,仅领先1个百分点——多空依旧胶着,重新定价幅度有限,方向已偏向仍由左翼保住首都地盘。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
⏰临近结算:Nemesis胜率66.5%,领先EYEBALLERS达33个百分点 本场BO3临近结算,Nemesis当前胜率锁定在66.5%,EYEBALLERS为33.5%,双方相差33个百分点。该盘面在24小时内零变动,定价已完全静止。临门一脚前剩余悬念仅在EYEBALLERS一侧的33.5%能否兑现。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩 🤩稀缺亿级域名|78.COM 🤩TG 小程序 |自由下注 🤩NO钱包上押 3亿U|可查验 🤩🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩 🤩专业服务 超高限红 毫秒出款 🤩香港彩特码🤩🤩倍 🤩连码三中三🤩🤩🤩倍 🤩连码四中四🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩倍 🤩百家乐全网最高返水🤩% 🤩电子、棋牌、捕鱼返水🤩.🤩% 🤩十三水/德州,自主组队,无抽佣 😄🏆【大發78.COM 爆奖天花板】🏆 🔥 💎 财神降临: PG电子爆分模式 68U狂飙18000倍 豪取120万U 🔥 运气爆棚: TG真人竞技之神 土豪一天时间狂收 180万U 🌟 幸运锦鲤: WG电子速爆 单注300爆出400万U超级大奖 ⚡️ 爆分时刻: DB真人百家乐 玩家仅用3680狂赚暴提66万U 🤩不靠噱头,靠品牌说话。 🤩好品牌无需堆砌,大發 78.COM 本身就是辨识度。 🤩🤩🤩🤩 : 78.COM …
⏰临近结算:HULIGANI胜率66%,领先MOUZ达32个百分点 Dota 2 EPL Masters季后赛MOUZ对HULIGANI的BO3临近结算,当前HULIGANI胜率为66.0%,MOUZ为34.0%,领先32个百分点。该盘面在24小时内零变动,临门一脚前市场对HULIGANI保持稳定共识。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
⏰临近结算:HOTU胜率78.5%,24小时零变动 HOTU对Nemiga的BO3临近结算,当前HOTU胜率锁定在78.5%,Nemiga为21.5%,相差57个百分点。24小时内该定价分毫未动,市场对HOTU赢下比赛保持稳定共识。临门一脚前盘面未现任何资金层面的重新定价,双方悬念有限。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🚨重大异动:LAPTOP FDV破$250M概率升至66.5%,24小时涨20个百分点 上线仅一天的LAPTOP,其FDV能否超过$250M?预测市场参与者正快速押注“能”。Yes一侧概率在24小时内从46.5%拉高到66.5%,上涨20.0个百分点。当前No一侧为33.5%,双方差距已拉开至33个百分点。市场定价正在从犹豫转为明确偏向。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🔥热门预测:勒庞2027胜选概率35.6%,No侧领先28.7个百分点 预测市场显示,玛丽娜·勒庞赢得2027年法国总统选举的概率24小时内从35.8%微降至35.6%。当前No一侧概率为64.3%,领先28.7个百分点,市场定价明确偏向她不会胜选。概率变化极小,后续值得观察的是能否出现打破这一僵局的催化事件。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
Showing the 12 most recent of 1,208 posts we hold for @polym8. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Mentions
Named by 10 registered channels — every channel on the register whose own posts have named this one, by its current username or any other username it currently holds, merged from two separately captured readings of the same fact so a namer caught by only one of them is not missed and a namer both caught is not counted twice. A username this channel has since dropped is not matched — that handle may belong to someone else now, and crediting today’s namer to yesterday’s owner would misattribute it.
Named by
Channels on the register whose posts name this channel's handle.
@XRQX1888 · 32,64823 posts云海联盟
@LM667788 · 56,91920 posts生活研究所📅
@bx6683 · 29,31714 posts电竞赛事分析🎮
@qz8768 · 31,43814 posts加密货币crypto资讯
@jmhb1 · 31,39710 posts马达加斯加大事件🇲🇬
@bx66b · 30,4918 posts体育赛事分析⚽️
@tytd2 · 34,3418 posts东南亚曝光吃瓜
@yh105 · 32,1295 posts东南亚头条·大事件
@bx6680 · 32,4493 posts马来西亚大事件🇲🇾
@mlxy80 · 41,4791 post
Names
Channels on the register whose handles appear in this channel's posts.
@LM667788 · 56,919769 postskk国际综合盘官方频道
@kk8pd · 10,17843 posts🏆KK国际游戏中转🏆
@KKGJ228 · 7,56133 posts8K 国际官方
@GJ8K8 · 5,03627 posts东南亚曝光吃瓜002
@bgcg2 · 5,46913 posts东南亚曝光吃瓜008
@bgcg5 · 5,66713 posts生活研究认知提升005
@bx66aa · 5,49913 posts生活研究认知提升002
@bx66cc · 5,18913 posts生活研究认知提升004
@bx66ee · 4,98913 posts电竞赛事分析LOL LSK KPL002
@djtd3 · 5,26613 posts电竞赛事分析LOL LSK KPL001
@djtd8 · 5,27813 posts电竞赛事分析LOL LSK KPL 003
@djtd86 · 5,28813 posts电竞赛事分析LOL LSK KPL 004
@djtd87 · 5,25613 posts热播短剧精品短剧美女短剧001
@duanju8 · 5,16713 posts加密货币BTC ETH资讯005
@jmhb83 · 5,17813 posts加密货币BTC ETH资讯004
@jmhb84 · 5,40713 posts精品短剧热播短剧美女短剧004
@jpdj7 · 5,29213 posts马达加斯加大事件非洲大事件001
@mdjsj5 · 4,97613 posts马达加斯加大事件非洲大事件003
@mdjsj82 · 5,51113 posts马达加斯加大事件非洲大事件004
@mdjsj83 · 5,72413 posts精品短剧美女短剧热播短剧005
@mvdj8 · 5,25413 postsPolymarket预测市场002
@polym2 · 5,23813 postsPolymarket预测市场005
@polym4 · 5,18113 postsPolymarket预测市场004
@polym5 · 5,33913 posts
A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.
Handles this channel named that no longer answer
- Dead references
- 3
- handles named in this channel’s posts, vacant today
- Evidenced gone
- 1
- we ourselves saw one of these resolve, at some point
- Never seen alive
- 2
- vacant every time we have ever looked
@polym8 named 3 handles that resolve to nothing today. That is a fact about the reference, not necessarily a fact about the handle’s history — see the two groups below.
Most of these may never have existed as a live channel at all. A handle a channel names can be a typo, an aspirational name nobody registered, or a channel that was already gone before this one ever mentioned it. Unless a row below is marked evidenced, all we know is that it references a handle that is not a live channel today — not that anything “died”. How this is measured.
Evidenced gone
We ourselves saw each of these resolve to a real page at some point before it went vacant — a genuine, evidenced change, not an inference from absence.
named in 8 posts, 8 August 2026 – 4 September 2026 · confirmed gone 11 September 2026 (two independent sightings — see how we confirm a dead handle)evidenced
Never seen alive
References a handle that is not a live channel — we have no record it ever was one.
named in 8 posts, 8 August 2026 – 4 September 2026
named in 8 posts, 8 August 2026 – 4 September 2026
Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 15 September 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“Polymarket信息分享” (@polym8), 33,162 subscribers as measured 15 September 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/polym8.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.