R.Politik

Several Wildberries logistics facilities were attacked in less than a week. The strikes mark a significant expansion of the war into Russia’s civilian consumer economy, directly affecting a platform used by millions of consumers, employees and small businesses. The damage is highly visible, yet the state has no agreed mechanism for protecting private infrastructure or distributing wartime losses. Companies are expect…

Putin does not believe that Ukraine's strike campaign can break Russian society. He reads it as a Western attempt to make his position fragile, and he is drawing conclusions from that reading which are not the ones being anticipated in Western capitals. The new R.Politik Bulletin, No. 13 (187), is out today. The assumption underpinning current Western policy is that mounting pressure will eventually bring Putin to …

The US-Iran memorandum signed in Islamabad is being read in Moscow in two seemingly contradictory ways. The loud version treats it as an American capitulation in the war — confirmation that Washington tried to topple an authoritarian regime but failed, and ended up in a more complicated position than before the war: a sign that US power is in decline despite its military might. The quieter, more realist version ackno…

Armenia has held an election that became a new geopolitical test for Russia: whether it has learnt the lessons of its failed relationships with the former Soviet states, how the decision-making unfolded, and why, once again, Moscow resorted to old coercive tactics despite past setbacks. No surprise — the overt pressure lifted Pashinyan's rating and helped him to the result that secures an absolute majority in parliam…

Putin went to Beijing four days after Trump, and the sequence flattered Moscow only on the surface. Trump had left without a breakthrough; Russia could present itself as China's steadier partner. But the visit produced no Power of Siberia 2 and no significant agreements, and what it confirmed was the asymmetry underneath the friendship: China is now the player whose economy lets Russia keep fighting. Beijing declines…

Russia's 81st Victory Day was the most tense of any in the post-Soviet era. The drastically reduced parade — no hardware on Red Square for the first time in 19 years, a sharply shrunken foreign turnout — was driven by a real fear that Ukraine could disrupt the celebrations. Moscow warned Kyiv of devastating strikes on decision-making centres, briefed Washington, Beijing and New Delhi on the consequences of any disrup…

For nearly two years, Russia's political agenda has been dominated by foreign affairs — Ukraine, the Trump diplomacy, Iran, the cycles of negotiation and failure. Over the past few weeks, the centre of gravity has shifted inward. What is emerging is a system simultaneously tightening its grip and losing some of its instinctive coordination. The viral 18-minute address to #Putin by influencer Victoria Bonya — 30 mill…

For the first time since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russian elite appears to be on the brink of an internal schism. On the one hand, the Kremlin’s continued use of the war to justify new rounds of repression makes it seem as if it’s business as usual. On the other hand, unhappiness over the recent push for total control of the internet is increasingly visible, with even loyalists starting to publ…

Russia's internet is being reshaped in real time. The FSB launched a simultaneous offensive this spring — mass blocking of VPN protocols, pressure on platforms to filter traffic, and the effective blocking of Telegram, now accessible only via VPN. On 3 April, a major banking outage left millions unable to make payments, with cash briefly becoming the only option — and the tightening of digital restrictions may have p…

The Middle East war just dropped an unexpected financial gift on Moscow — but the real drama is unfolding inside Russia. R.Politik Bulletin No. 6 (180) is out. IN FOCUS A major oil supply shock from the Iran conflict has narrowed Urals discounts and given the Kremlin short-term breathing room, helped by the temporary US waiver. Putin is treating it as temporary. The budget crisis isn’t. Yet the domestic stories ar…

The Iran war is dominating global headlines — US-Israeli strikes since 28 February, Khamenei assassinated, Mojtaba now Supreme Leader, oil markets volatile over Hormuz threats, and Trump claiming the US is “very far ahead of schedule.” Public discourse remains focused on the immediate chaos: who gains from rising #oil prices? Is this a strategic distraction for Russia in Ukraine? Will the conflict ultimately damage …

If you follow Russia’s strategic thinking, the interplay between the Middle East conflict and Ukraine, the Telegram situation, or you simply want a detailed, source-based analysis of the factors shaping decisions in Moscow — the full 45-page document is now available at R.Politik.