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Channel

Прогнозы на футбол / спорт

@prognozy

On this record: Topic · Observations · Also posting the same content · Growth · Engagement · Posts · Cite this entry

1,647subscribers

-38 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026

Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 1,000–3,162.

Register entry

Telegram ID-1001837892835
TypeChannel
Username@prognozy
CreatedBetween 1 October 2022 and 30 September 2023 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated.
First recorded7 August 2026
Last confirmed live18 September 2026
Measurements held13
Confirmed unchanged1 time, most recently 18 September 2026
On Telegramt.me/prognozy

Topic

Gambling & betting — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-UD-Q6_K_XL, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 11 August 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 77% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and why it has no browse page of its own yet.

Observations

These are measurements, not verdicts. Each one below states something we counted, alongside the evidence it was counted from, so you can check it rather than take it. None of them is graded: every observation this register holds is recorded at severity 0, because the precision of the detectors behind them has not been measured yet, and a rating we cannot support is worse than none. Read each as a fact about the data, not as a judgement about the channel. How we measure.

Content that also appears on other registered channels

Posts published here appear word for word on 3 other registered channels. The matching is on the text itself, not on Telegram’s forward marker, so it finds a copy whether or not it was labelled as one.

Matching posts — open both and compare (6 of the pairs behind the counts below)
Posted firstThenOverlapGap
@prognozy/4981 · this entry24 Jul 2026, 10:17 UTC@na_stavky_sport/698724 Jul 2026, 10:17 UTC1.00under a minute
@prognozy/4984 · this entry26 Jul 2026, 09:30 UTC@na_stavky_sport/699026 Jul 2026, 09:30 UTC1.00under a minute
@prognozy/4988 · this entry29 Jul 2026, 18:12 UTC@na_stavky_sport/699429 Jul 2026, 18:12 UTC1.00under a minute
@prognozy/4991 · this entry31 Jul 2026, 09:24 UTC@na_stavky_sport/699731 Jul 2026, 09:24 UTC1.00under a minute
@prognozy/4994 · this entry1 Aug 2026, 09:45 UTC@na_stavky_sport/70001 Aug 2026, 09:45 UTC1.00under a minute
@prognozy/4995 · this entry1 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC@na_stavky_sport/70011 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC1.00under a minute
Every channel this entry shares post bodies with
ChannelMatching postsText overlapTypical gapPublished first
@na_stavky_sport8 (8/8 hand-verifiable sample passed)1.00under a minute@na_stavky_sport (6–2)
@stavki8 (8/8 hand-verifiable sample passed)1.00under a minute@stavki (5–3)
@prognozy_sport_na8 (8/8 hand-verifiable sample passed)1.00under a minuteeven

Text overlap is the Jaccard coefficient over the set of distinct three-word phrases in the two bodies: 1.00 is identical wording, and the threshold for counting a pair at all is 0.70. Candidates are generated by simhash LSH (4 x 16-bit bands, exact Hamming <= 3) verified against the bodies with Jaccard over the SET of distinct 3-word shingles. Published first counts which side of each matching pair carries the earlier timestamp — in this corpus, which is the limitation directly below.

What this cannot establish

MEASURED, DOMINANT ERROR SOURCE: a post ingested before 2026-08-06 may have carried a forward header that was not recorded. A 45-pair hand-check against live t.me pages found 14 (31%) where the live page shows a forward header naming the other channel and the database has none, plus 4 more (9%) naming a third party. The text match itself was wrong 0 times out of 45. Read attribution_capture.items_in_trusted_window before treating the unattributed count as a claim.

Telegram lets a channel forward a post with a header naming the source, and we only began reliably recording that header on 2026-08-06. None of the 15 matches recorded here fall after that date, so for this entry we cannot say whether any of them carried a credit. The duplication is measured; the absence of attribution is not.

“Published first” means first in this corpus. We hold 8 comparable posts for this entry, running 24 July 2026 to 4 August 2026. A channel we have read one page deep will look younger than a neighbour we have read in full, and the order would flip with no change in the underlying facts.

The detector’s own notes on this observation, as it recorded them. Names in this_style are fields of the underlying evidence record, which the plain-English paragraphs above read out for this entry.

  • Verbatim republication has three causes and the text separates only two: a clone/mirror, unattributed copy-paste, or BOTH channels copying a common third source that neither attributes. The spread filter (content held by at most 8 channels) reduces the third and does not remove it.
  • 'Earliest' means earliest IN THIS CORPUS. A channel ingested one page deep will look younger than a neighbour ingested in full; corpus_coverage above is there to be checked before the direction is believed.
  • shared_verified_est extrapolates the sampled pass rate over the full narrow match count; sampled/passed are the numbers actually measured.
  • Absence of a forward header is not proof of intent: Telegram lets a channel disable forward attribution, and a credit written in the body is not parsed as attribution here (mention_edge_either_way above is the closest available signal).

Across the whole group of 4, the earliest publisher we hold is @prognozy — which is this entry. That is a statement about our reading window, not a claim of authorship.

Recorded under the keys clone_copy · clone_mutual, last confirmed 7 August 2026. An observation that a later pass no longer finds is cleared, and a cleared observation is removed from this page rather than being shown struck through — we do not keep publishing a claim we have withdrawn. Dispute an observation.

Also posting the same content

This channel’s posts match, word for word or near enough, posts on 3 other registered channels, found by comparing text fingerprints across every channel on the register. That matching has been checked by hand against the live Telegram pages and found reliable — 0 wrong of 45 pairs re-read.

Which channel, if either, published first is deliberately not shown. The same hand-check found that reading wrong 18 of 45 times — 60%, no better than a coin flip — because it depends on how deep our own crawl happened to reach into each channel’s history, not on when the content was actually first posted. This list is ordered by subscriber count, the same as every other listing on this site, never by which channel we think came first. Word-for-word matching has several ordinary explanations besides copying — a channel mirroring itself, an unattributed repost, or two channels independently repeating the same wire story — and this measurement cannot tell those apart. How this is measured.

Growth

1,6431,6851,6647 August 2026 — 1,685 subscribers7 August 2026 — 1,685 subscribers9 August 2026 — 1,684 subscribers13 August 2026 — 1,676 subscribers16 August 2026 — 1,678 subscribers22 August 2026 — 1,676 subscribers25 August 2026 — 1,667 subscribers29 August 2026 — 1,665 subscribers1 September 2026 — 1,659 subscribers5 September 2026 — 1,653 subscribers10 September 2026 — 1,646 subscribers14 September 2026 — 1,643 subscribers18 September 2026 — 1,647 subscribers1,6477 August 202618 September 2026
13 measurements spanning 42 days, net -38. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 1,637–1,691 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded
Measured (UTC)SubscribersChange
18 Sept 2026, 04:561,647+4
14 Sept 2026, 08:211,643-3
10 Sept 2026, 09:181,646-7
5 Sept 2026, 12:181,653-6
1 Sept 2026, 03:581,659-6
29 Aug 2026, 02:081,665-2
25 Aug 2026, 22:141,667-9
22 Aug 2026, 13:031,676-2
16 Aug 2026, 16:551,678+2
13 Aug 2026, 04:031,676-8
9 Aug 2026, 22:311,684-1
7 Aug 2026, 00:461,685no change
7 Aug 2026, 00:361,685first reading

Engagement

19 posts held, back to 24 July 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 2 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.

Nothing published in the last 30 days. ERR and ER are rolling 30-day measures, so there is nothing to compute — we hold 19 posts for this entry, the most recent from 4 August 2026. An engagement rate over an empty window would be a number about nothing.

Recent posts

4 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC202 viewsread 7 August 2026

Кубок России ❗️ Ставим аккуратно! Много не грузим.

4 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC200 viewsread 7 August 2026
Photo

⚡️ ПРОГНОЗ ПО ЛИНИИ #1 🚂Локомотив - ЦСКА🐴 ➡️ Прогноз на матч: Обе забьют - Да 👍 Ставим тут: https://mlbt.cc/4hojahB 🎫 Промокод: BANK Промокод дарит бонус на первый депозит до 30 000 рублей

3 Aug 2026, 11:40 UTC207 viewsread 7 August 2026
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🤙 MELBET — приложение, где есть всё для комфортной игры 👇 ⚡️ Быстрые выплаты 🔥 Топовые коэффициенты 🎁 Постоянные бонусы и акции 🏆 Огромный выбор спорта и live-событий Здесь можно поставить не только на победу команды 👇 ✔️ Гол конкретного игрока ✔️ Количество угловых ✔️ Жёлтые карточки ✔️ Пенальти / удаления ✔️ Счёт по таймам и многое другое... 💳 Пополнение и вывод без комиссии 👇 СБП, МИР, VISA, банки РФ и крипта. …

1 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC232 viewsread 7 August 2026
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Сегодня ставка дня не прошла. Московский клуб хорошо сыграл, и была даже возможность сравнять счет в концовке матча. Но, слегка не повезло. Минус в статистику. Работаю на следующими матчами РПЛ🤝

1 Aug 2026, 09:45 UTC261 viewsread 7 August 2026
Photo

🔥Ставка дня от TelegaBet 🍺Балтика - Динамо Москва🚔 🐻Россия, Премьер лига, Тур - 2 ⏰Начало матча в 20:45 МСК Клуб из Калининграда начал нынешний чемпионат с поражения в Москве от ЦСКА. Команда Андрея Талалаева быстро открыла счет уже на 35-й секунде, но затем слишком рано ушла в оборону на удержание минимального преимущества и поплатилась за это еще в первом тайме. Дополнительной проблемой для калининградцев стало от…

31 Jul 2026, 19:41 UTC222 viewsread 7 August 2026

Ребят! Приглашайте друзей в наш канала. Буду благодарен 🙂 Ссылка для приглашения⬇️ t.me/+Apfoj7YIdyViZjAy

31 Jul 2026, 09:24 UTC248 viewsread 7 August 2026
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🔥Ставка дня от TelegaBet 🕊Родина - Ростов🚜 🐻Россия, Премьер лига, Тур - 2 ⏰Начало матча в 20:00 МСК В дебютном матче в РПЛ столичный клуб уступил московскому «Спартаку» (0:3). Команда испанского специалиста Хуана Диаса не стала изменять себе и играть в закрытый футбол, при этом до последней 10-минутки уступала в счете только в 1 мяч. И все же класса исполнителей «Родине» не хватило: в межсезонье коллектив пока попол…

29 Jul 2026, 18:12 UTC244 viewsread 7 August 2026
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🔴 ПРОГНОЗ LIVE ➡️ Прогноз на матч: Тотал (2)Б 👍 Ставим тут: https://mlbt.cc/4wsKH6v 🎫 Промокод: BANK Промокод дарит бонус на первый депозит до 30 000 рублей

Showing the 12 most recent of 19 posts we hold for @prognozy. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.

Cite this entry

A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 18 September 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.

“Прогнозы на футбол / спорт” (@prognozy), 1,647 subscribers as measured 18 September 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/prognozy.

Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.