성장 전망은 높은데 금통위 점도표가 3.25%에 몰린 것에 대해 이런 저런 해석이 분분한데, 지난해 성장률 1.1%를 감안하면, 올해 3% 중반 성장해도 2년 평균은 2.2% 내외, 내년 2.9%이면 GDP갭 1%p 내외. 여기에 2.5% 근원물가 감안하면… 내년 적정 금리는 3.0~ 3.5%. 경제 전망과 점도표 간의 괴리가 크다고 볼 수는 없는 듯
Channel
삼성리서치 매크로 정성태
@samsung_macro
On this record: Topic · Growth · Engagement · Posts · Posts edited after publishing · Citations · Cite this entry
7,966subscribers
+409 since we began measuring on 6 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 3,162–10,000.
Register entry
| Telegram ID | -1001425475418 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @samsung_macro |
| Created | 21 October 2020 — measured — cross-checked against a third-party dataset (ext.tg_channel) |
| First recorded | 6 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 13 September 2026 |
| Measurements held | 13 |
| Confirmed unchanged | 1 time, most recently 13 September 2026 |
| On Telegram | t.me/samsung_macro |
Topic
Other / unclassifiable — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 12 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 90% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and why it has no browse page of its own yet.
Growth
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Sept 2026, 20:17 | 7,966 | +97 |
| 9 Sept 2026, 21:18 | 7,869 | +12 |
| 4 Sept 2026, 21:59 | 7,857 | +28 |
| 1 Sept 2026, 09:35 | 7,829 | +18 |
| 29 Aug 2026, 06:04 | 7,811 | +1 |
| 26 Aug 2026, 06:11 | 7,810 | +19 |
| 23 Aug 2026, 05:46 | 7,791 | +86 |
| 19 Aug 2026, 07:05 | 7,705 | +36 |
| 16 Aug 2026, 01:56 | 7,669 | +21 |
| 12 Aug 2026, 15:03 | 7,648 | +46 |
| 9 Aug 2026, 15:17 | 7,602 | +45 |
| 6 Aug 2026, 05:10 | 7,557 | no change |
| 6 Aug 2026, 04:35 | 7,557 | first reading |
Engagement
90 posts held, back to 31 July 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 18 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
- ERR · 30 days
- 53.9%
- avg views ÷ 7,966 subscribers
- Avg views / post
- 4,290
- 32 posts measured
- Reaction rate
- —
- this channel exposes no reaction counts
- Posts in window
- 37
- of 90 held
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.
| Window | Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 28 August 2026 |
|---|---|
| Posts held | 90 (31 July 2026 – 28 August 2026) |
| Views total | 137,374 |
| Reactions total | — |
| Forwards / comments | not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated |
| Readings taken | 28 Aug 2026, 20:26 UTC |
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
Recent posts
로봇 춤은 잘 추나 일은 못한다 갈 길 멀다
SF Fed의 Weekly LMSI(labor market stress indicator) 슬금슬금 올라오는 중… 물론 지수는 여전히 낮은 편.
한은 수출 전망 내년 하반기 -5.3% 참고로 작년 이맘때 올해 전망도 -1.9%였음(올해 7월까지 50%) 기우제인가? 전망인가? 물론 기저가 높으니 둔화되기는 하겠죠…
한은 경상수지 전망 26년 4500억 달러, 27년 4300억 달러. 불과 3개월만에 2000억과 2400억이 늘었는데… 당황스럽네. 성장률도 왕창 올리고… 뒤늦은 각성의 원인은?
한은 성장률 전망 올해 3.3%, 내년 2.9% vs 당사 3.5%, 2.8%. 이제 컨센도 올라오겠네요(as I told). 28년은 다들 2.0% 언저리…AI capex도 28년에는 증가율 크게 낮아지는게 컨센서스. 이제 관건은 28년 이후 전망. 오늘 엔비디아 컨콜은 되게 긍정적이던데…그렇다면 28년도 기대보다 더 높을 수도.
7월 PCE는 non-event 다만, 실질 개인 소비 0%로 둔화세 지속.
일본 27년 예산안 130조엔? 26년 122.3조엔에서 7.6조엔 증가 그런데, 그 중에서 3.6조엔이 이자비용 증가 탓. 이래 갖고 책임있는 적극재정 가능하려나? 참고로 매년 이자비용 증가가 몇 조엔에 달해서 재정 부담 요인
트럼프와 그의 시대가 지고 있다
BOJ의 근원물가 추정 여전히 2% 하회 일본 내 수요측 압력 높지 않고, 인플레이션은 대체로 공급이나 환율 때문이라는 의미. 임금 상승의 수혜를 입은 근로가구의 소비는 양호하나, 은퇴연령층은 인플레이션으로 소비에 적극적이지 못함.
금융시장 신호에 귀를 기울이라는 Warsh의 말대로… 금융시장에서는 이미 실질적으로 금리가 인상된 모양새 시계열이 짧기는 하지만, proxy가 실제 금리를 선행하는 듯 잭슨 홀에서 Warsh는 Big Picture를 제대로 그릴 수 있을까? Sahm의 말대로라면 알맹이는 없어 보이는데.
미국 재무부 금보유 시가가 1조 달러네요.
Showing the 12 most recent of 90 posts we hold for @samsung_macro. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Posts edited after publishing
@samsung_macro edited 2 posts after it first published — the same permalink now carries different wording than the one this register originally read, caught because our own crawl held a copy of the earlier text.
An edit is not deception. Typo fixes, price updates and corrections look exactly like this too — this register can tell you the wording changed and when, not why. How this is measured.
- First edit seen
- 10 August 2026
- Most recent edit
- 18 August 2026
Forward network
Republished by
Channels on the register that have forwarded this channel's posts into their own feed.
@hedgehara · 19,0753 posts드리머의 잃지 않는 투자
@orangeboard · 4,6863 posts64비트사령부⚡️ 🇰🇷🇺🇸
@BTCpentagon · 6,1131 post크립토파즈(Cryptopaz)
@cryptopaz0 · 11,5061 post상장기업 수사대 ☎️
@cyber_rangers · 16,9741 post만족 지연과 복리
@deferred_gratification · 5971 post빠르고 정확한 주식정보방
@fastest_info1 · 13,2101 post프리라이프
@free_life59 · 12,7061 post재야의 고수들
@gaoshoukorea · 41,1771 post메모장
@idea_memo · 8,8501 post인상주의 투자 인생 업그레이드노트
@insangnism · 11,3141 post나혼주
@nahonju · 2,1121 post양파농장
@Onionfarmer · 15,9961 post정리용
@PalyGround · 611 post[삼성 이창희] Japan Equity & Sector Strategy
@samsungpe · 3,8371 post오를수도 있고
@updownstock · 881 post
Built only from forwarded posts we have actually read, on both sides. Coverage is early and deliberately incomplete: a missing link means we have not read the post that would prove it, never that the relationship does not exist. Counts are distinct forwarded posts observed, so they only ever go up as we read more.
Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 13 September 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“삼성리서치 매크로 정성태” (@samsung_macro), 7,966 subscribers as measured 13 September 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/samsung_macro.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.