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Channel

Cautious bull run enjoyers

@smolinsanity

On this record: Topic · Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Reactions · Posts · Citations · Telegram's recommendations · Cite this entry

14,037subscribers

-615 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026

Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 10,000–31,623.

Register entry

Telegram ID-1001880080414
TypeChannel
Username@smolinsanity
DescriptionWaiting for 2027
CreatedBetween 1 October 2022 and 30 September 2023 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated.
First recorded7 August 2026
Last confirmed live5 November 2026
Measurements held59
Confirmed unchanged1 time, most recently 5 November 2026
On Telegramt.me/smolinsanity

Topic

Politics & activism — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 10 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 49% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and the other topics.

Growth

14,03714,65214,344.57 August 2026 — 14,652 subscribers7 August 2026 — 14,652 subscribers8 August 2026 — 14,644 subscribers9 August 2026 — 14,636 subscribers10 August 2026 — 14,632 subscribers11 August 2026 — 14,614 subscribers12 August 2026 — 14,597 subscribers13 August 2026 — 14,591 subscribers14 August 2026 — 14,577 subscribers16 August 2026 — 14,562 subscribers17 August 2026 — 14,547 subscribers18 August 2026 — 14,538 subscribers19 August 2026 — 14,531 subscribers20 August 2026 — 14,530 subscribers23 August 2026 — 14,512 subscribers24 August 2026 — 14,501 subscribers25 August 2026 — 14,496 subscribers26 August 2026 — 14,492 subscribers27 August 2026 — 14,505 subscribers28 August 2026 — 14,499 subscribers29 August 2026 — 14,493 subscribers30 August 2026 — 14,484 subscribers31 August 2026 — 14,478 subscribers1 September 2026 — 14,459 subscribers3 September 2026 — 14,458 subscribers4 September 2026 — 14,444 subscribers7 September 2026 — 14,422 subscribers10 September 2026 — 14,408 subscribers12 September 2026 — 14,388 subscribers14 September 2026 — 14,373 subscribers15 September 2026 — 14,377 subscribers17 September 2026 — 14,361 subscribers27 September 2026 — 14,307 subscribers4 October 2026 — 14,279 subscribers9 October 2026 — 14,230 subscribers13 October 2026 — 14,205 subscribers14 October 2026 — 14,186 subscribers15 October 2026 — 14,181 subscribers16 October 2026 — 14,182 subscribers17 October 2026 — 14,171 subscribers18 October 2026 — 14,170 subscribers19 October 2026 — 14,166 subscribers20 October 2026 — 14,162 subscribers21 October 2026 — 14,152 subscribers22 October 2026 — 14,150 subscribers23 October 2026 — 14,145 subscribers24 October 2026 — 14,134 subscribers25 October 2026 — 14,131 subscribers26 October 2026 — 14,128 subscribers27 October 2026 — 14,124 subscribers28 October 2026 — 14,115 subscribers29 October 2026 — 14,105 subscribers30 October 2026 — 14,091 subscribers31 October 2026 — 14,087 subscribers1 November 2026 — 14,079 subscribers2 November 2026 — 14,065 subscribers3 November 2026 — 14,058 subscribers4 November 2026 — 14,044 subscribers5 November 2026 — 14,037 subscribers7 August 20265 November 2026
59 measurements spanning 90 days, net -615. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 13,945–14,744 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded, most recent 20 of 59
Measured (UTC)SubscribersChange
5 Nov 2026, 12:3914,037-7
4 Nov 2026, 13:5914,044-14
3 Nov 2026, 12:4914,058-7
2 Nov 2026, 09:4114,065-14
1 Nov 2026, 12:1814,079-8
31 Oct 2026, 11:0114,087-4
30 Oct 2026, 14:0714,091-14
29 Oct 2026, 14:5914,105-10
28 Oct 2026, 16:4714,115-9
27 Oct 2026, 14:3714,124-4
26 Oct 2026, 15:2814,128-3
25 Oct 2026, 15:1814,131-3
24 Oct 2026, 14:1814,134-11
23 Oct 2026, 16:2014,145-5
22 Oct 2026, 15:3514,150-2
21 Oct 2026, 12:5514,152-10
20 Oct 2026, 08:5714,162-4
19 Oct 2026, 08:1014,166-4
18 Oct 2026, 09:0614,170-1
17 Oct 2026, 12:2814,171first reading

Engagement

126 posts held, back to 31 July 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 57 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.

ERR · 30 days
7.49%
avg views ÷ 14,037 subscribers
Avg views / post
1,050
24 posts measured
Reaction rate
0.373%
reactions ÷ views · ER floor
Posts in window
24
of 126 held

ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.

ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate. It is computed over the 18 of 24 measured posts that carry a reaction reading, and over those same posts' views.

What these figures were computed from
WindowRolling 30 days · latest post in window 6 November 2026
Posts held126 (31 July 2026 – 6 November 2026)
Views total25,244
Reactions total72
Forwards / commentsnot exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated
Readings taken6 Nov 2026, 06:07 UTC

Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.

Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.

Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.

What this channel posts

Photos
≈1,040
Videos
≈24
Links
≈2,240

Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 6 November 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. A count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints these counters in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈142,000 means somewhere between 141,500 and 142,499.

Reaction mix

305 reactions across 81 posts, in 13 distinct kinds. The most used accounts for 31.8% of them.

Every reaction kind recorded on the sample, most used first
ReactionCountShareShare, drawn
❤9731.8%
🤣6722.0%
🌭3812.5%
🔥289.18%
👍237.54%
🌚144.59%
🤓134.26%
😢113.61%
🐳51.64%
💯41.31%
🥰30.984%
🍓10.328%
👀10.328%

No sentiment is inferred, and none should be read in. This table is ordered by count and by nothing else. Emoji do not carry stable meaning across languages or communities — 🙏 is thanks in one channel and mourning in another — so we publish which ones were pressed and how often, and pass no judgement on what an audience meant by them.

Precision. Telegram publishes reaction counts per emoji and short-forms each one — 4.34K, 1.2M — so any single kind at or above 1,000 reaches us at three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. The shares above are ratios of those figures and carry the same error. This is also why the total here can differ slightly from a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page: both are sums of the same rounded parts, taken over samples with different edges.

Coverage. Reactions were read on 91 of the 126 sampled posts in this sample. Summed by Telegram’s own count on each post — not by adding up the per-emoji breakdown above — those same posts carry 305 reactions in total: the kind of figure the paragraph above means by “a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page”.

Measured over the 126 most recent posts we hold, published 31 July 2026 to 6 November 2026, using the newest reading held for each. Telegram Stars are excluded: they are a payment, not a reaction, and they have their own section.

Recent posts

Telegram’s own ‘edited’ marker: 0 of 24 posts held from the last 30 days (0%) carried it when this register last read them. The marker says a post was changed after publishing, not what it said before — this register holds the earlier wording only where an edit fell between two of its own reads (see the edit ledger and how it is measured).

6 Nov 2026, 03:23 UTC392 views5 reactionsread 6 November 2026

> Anth tries to IPO at 2t > Anth cuts IPO price to 1.5t > Cuts further to 1t > No one wants to fill, Jensen says I have other fires to fight in my Kingdom > USG rubs hands in glee, prints money and makes it a national strategic resource. Insert markets turbo tanking in between IPO delay/cancel and bailout 😳

🌭5

6 Nov 2026, 00:12 UTC516 viewsread 6 November 2026

https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/2118475216393253264?a=v9eypWxt1_O4whoRaeg&s=19 I was talking to a friend earlier about this. How do you expand your stack while having the mindset to protect it. His idea was that he wanted to move in the spaces where there's less alpha leakage (no Ken Griffins, podshops) and thus be able to find true alpha to outperform. But the downside of that is a) you have to buy exceptional value…

5 Nov 2026, 19:38 UTC719 views5 reactionsread 6 November 2026

Korea really going to do an Arthur hayes and disable the red button

🤣5

4 Nov 2026, 07:25 UTC897 views2 reactionsread 6 November 2026

I'm not sure about this PA but I'll take it ☺️

❤1🌭1

4 Nov 2026, 03:59 UTC≈1,010 views1 reactionsread 6 November 2026

or maybe they can all go to albania where Jared is building his megamansion

❤1

4 Nov 2026, 03:20 UTC≈1,030 views5 reactionsread 6 November 2026

Get ready for an influx of maga tax dodgers in PR

❤2👍2🌭1

3 Nov 2026, 22:35 UTC≈1,070 viewsread 6 November 2026

https://x.com/CRUDEOIL231/status/2117585227430383677?a=PPdp45u0xvdhO4oGqYs&s=19 There's a lot of angry people around.

3 Nov 2026, 03:35 UTC≈1,050 views2 reactionsread 6 November 2026

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MM7QGccszUU jared really not going to like this.

❤2

3 Nov 2026, 02:16 UTC923 views1 reactionsread 6 November 2026
Photo

https://x.com/masayoshisson/status/2117351574372778476?a=TULStxumimEajpdwxrE&s=19 Lol only top 25% of funds beat their index. And every Asia fund underperformed index. I'm hoping these are net numbers not gross bc that is really gross if it is.

❤1

2 Nov 2026, 11:09 UTC959 viewsread 6 November 2026

https://x.com/CardilloSamuel/status/2117204219669467221?a=d5koDlIpDV5E1Ug5WKw&s=20

Showing the 12 most recent of 126 posts we hold for @smolinsanity. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.

Forward network

Republished by

Channels on the register that have forwarded this channel's posts into their own feed.

Built only from forwarded posts we have actually read, on both sides. Coverage is early and deliberately incomplete: a missing link means we have not read the post that would prove it, never that the relationship does not exist. Counts are distinct forwarded posts observed, so they only ever go up as we read more.

Mentions

Named by 3 registered channels — every channel on the register whose own posts have named this one, by its current username or any other username it currently holds, merged from two separately captured readings of the same fact so a namer caught by only one of them is not missed and a namer both caught is not counted twice. A username this channel has since dropped is not matched — that handle may belong to someone else now, and crediting today’s namer to yesterday’s owner would misattribute it.

A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.

Appears in Telegram’s recommendations for other channels

The reverse of the list above, and a different kind of signal. This does not require this channel to have ever been asked about directly — each row below is a channel we DID ask Telegram about, whose Telegram-generated list happened to include this one. A channel can appear here with an empty list above it, because being named by someone else’s query is independent of having been queried itself.

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This channel appears in 26 seed channels' Telegram-generated recommendation lists in total, of which the 24 where it ranks highest are shown above. Each is Telegram’s list for THAT channel, not this one — see how this is measured.

Cite this entry

A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 5 November 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.

“Cautious bull run enjoyers” (@smolinsanity), 14,037 subscribers as measured 5 November 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/smolinsanity.

Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.