► vkvideo.ru/@vatfor
► vk.com/vatfor
№ 4933401817
Автострадный think tank, Центр политической наркологии. Пишем о политике и международной безопасности, а иногда - о чем угодно.
Только авторские материалы.
Created
27 January 2017 — measured — cross-checked against a third-party dataset (ext.tg_channel)
Politics & activism — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 9 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 83% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and why it has no browse page of its own yet.
Observations
These are measurements, not verdicts. Each one below states something we counted, alongside the evidence it was counted from, so you can check it rather than take it. None of them is graded: every observation this register holds is recorded at severity 0, because the precision of the detectors behind them has not been measured yet, and a rating we cannot support is worse than none. Read each as a fact about the data, not as a judgement about the channel. How we measure.
Views per post sit far above this size band
23,300 average views per post against 31,961 subscribers — an engagement rate of 73.0%. Across the 8,271 registered channels in the same cohort — 31,626–99,975 subscribers, posting mainly in Russian — the middle half sit between 5.04% and 20.7%, with a median of 10.4%.
What this was computed from
Window
30 days (24 September 2026 – 24 October 2026)
Posts measured
35 of 36 published in the window (0 exact, 35 rounded by Telegram)
Views totalled
816,470
Mature posts only
74.1% over 34 posts read at least 24h after publication
When this is recorded. A channel is listed here only when its engagement rate sits at or above the 99th percentile of its cohort and is at least 3× away from that cohort’s median — above it — on both the all-readings figure and the mature-only figure. The percentile alone would be circular: a percentile cut puts the same share of every cohort in the tail whatever the data looks like. The distance from the median is what makes it a statement about this channel.
This is not a verdict, and the direction is not a quality signal. A low rate has many innocent causes — audiences that read in the Telegram app without opening the channel, a subscriber base built long before the current output, an audience in a different timezone from our reading. A high rate has innocent causes too: a post that travelled far beyond the channel’s own subscribers will do it. We publish the measurement and the distribution it sits in. The full cohort baselines are downloadable, so this comparison can be reproduced rather than trusted.
Recorded under the key err_high, last confirmed 24 October 2026. An observation that a later pass no longer finds is cleared, and a cleared observation is removed from this page rather than being shown struck through — we do not keep publishing a claim we have withdrawn. Dispute an observation.
Growth
49 measurements spanning 79 days, net +230. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 31,543–32,044 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded, most recent 20 of 49
Measured (UTC)
Subscribers
Change
24 Oct 2026, 06:30
31,961
-8
23 Oct 2026, 09:00
31,969
-8
22 Oct 2026, 09:39
31,977
+6
21 Oct 2026, 02:09
31,971
-15
19 Oct 2026, 23:28
31,986
+10
18 Oct 2026, 20:00
31,976
-6
17 Oct 2026, 20:10
31,982
+2
16 Oct 2026, 19:19
31,980
+41
15 Oct 2026, 17:20
31,939
+36
14 Oct 2026, 17:51
31,903
-3
13 Oct 2026, 08:28
31,906
+170
9 Oct 2026, 07:39
31,736
-14
4 Oct 2026, 23:38
31,750
+36
27 Sept 2026, 18:18
31,714
+58
17 Sept 2026, 17:00
31,656
-5
15 Sept 2026, 13:42
31,661
-12
14 Sept 2026, 00:59
31,673
-9
12 Sept 2026, 07:16
31,682
+3
10 Sept 2026, 03:55
31,679
+23
6 Sept 2026, 22:02
31,656
first reading
Engagement
98 posts held, back to 14 July 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 133 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
ERR · 30 days
73.0%
avg views ÷ 31,961 subscribers
Avg views / post
23,300
35 posts measured
Reaction rate
1.36%
reactions ÷ views · ER floor
Posts in window
36
of 98 held
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.
What these figures were computed from
Window
Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 23 October 2026
Posts held
98 (14 July 2026 – 23 October 2026)
Views total
816,470
Reactions total
11,111
Forwards / comments
not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated
Readings taken
24 Oct 2026, 15:36 UTC
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
What this channel posts
Photos
≈3,350
Videos
≈211
Links
≈5,910
Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 24 October 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. A count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints these counters in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈142,000 means somewhere between 141,500 and 142,499.
Video runtime
2m 02s
Average length
1m 01s
Measured directly from 2 videos with a duration reading, out of the posts we hold for this channel — not this channel’s whole posting history, only the sample this register has actually read. An exact reading to the second, taken from the post itself rather than from Telegram’s own rounded chrome, so it carries no ≈ mark.
Reaction mix
27,099 reactions across 95 posts, in 1 kind.
Every reaction kind recorded on the sample, most used first
Reaction
Count
Share
Share, drawn
custom 5417949270781215145
27,099
100.0%
Custom emoji. One row above is a Telegram custom emoji, which the public preview renders as an element carrying only a numeric id — no character, and no image we can reach. The id is printed as-is rather than substituted with a look-alike glyph, because a stand-in would be our invention showing where a measurement should be. The count beside it is Telegram’s.
No sentiment is inferred, and none should be read in. This table is ordered by count and by nothing else. Emoji do not carry stable meaning across languages or communities — 🙏 is thanks in one channel and mourning in another — so we publish which ones were pressed and how often, and pass no judgement on what an audience meant by them.
Precision. Telegram publishes reaction counts per emoji and short-forms each one — 4.34K, 1.2M — so any single kind at or above 1,000 reaches us at three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. The shares above are ratios of those figures and carry the same error. This is also why the total here can differ slightly from a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page: both are sums of the same rounded parts, taken over samples with different edges.
Coverage. Reactions were read on 96 of the 98 sampled posts in this sample. Summed by Telegram’s own count on each post — not by adding up the per-emoji breakdown above — those same posts carry 27,584 reactions in total: the kind of figure the paragraph above means by “a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page”.
Measured over the 98 most recent posts we hold, published 14 July 2026 to 23 October 2026, using the newest reading held for each. Telegram Stars are excluded: they are a payment, not a reaction, and they have their own section.
Слушайте, а у вас есть идеи, зачем Рубио и прочие продолжают это говорить?
Вся западная медийка и вся наша соя уже второй год рассуждает, что будет делать Путин после того, как возьмет Славянск и Краматорск: пойдет дальше или остановится? Поскольку у нас пророков в своем отечестве нет, у нас тоже рассуждают, что будет делать Путин после того, как возьмет Славянск и Краматорск: пойдет дальше или остановится?
Путину …
Вокруг Украины сейчас пошел движняк. Происходит множество скрытых процессов, я пытаюсь по обрывкам воссоздать полную картину и делюсь с вами. Так что это не готовые выводы, это мысли вслух.
Вот Зеленский съездил в Брюссель, потребовал там 70 и 155 миллиардов («для вас это копейки!») и получил ответ, мол, касса закрыта, приходите в конце ноября.
Без этих денег воевать он не сможет, но пока только Мерц подтвердил гот…
Добавим пару заметок в наш журнал наблюдений за живой природой.
Трамп пошел крыть Зеленского в твиторе. Это скорее означает, что ничего сейчас он делать не будет ни для него, ни против. Когда Донни задумывает недоброе, он ведет себя максимально дружелюбно, улыбается, называет визави хорошим парнем, рассказывает, как они вот-вот договорятся, и так далее. А вот когда Трамп лает, кусать скорее всего он не будет.
Между…
Очень коротко по поводу французского праздника огня. Я бы сравнил это с недавней вакханалией БЛМ и воукизма в США. Да, во Франции лозунги у погромщиков формально иные, но мотивация сходная: на фоне похудания среднего класса и сдувания социальных расходов первая реакция общества – это бунтарская левацкая волна.
Считаю, что в США именно БЛМ привели к власти Трампа: более консервативная часть общества посмотрела на все…
Ватфор | Автострадный think tank pinned «В начале октября написал для РТ большой разбор про окончательно зачищенный сегодня волчанский котел. С ним уже тогда все было понятно, поэтому решили не ждать. Финальные две недели агонии в хронику не попали, как не попало и название операции: «Медвежий…»
В начале октября написал для РТ большой разбор про окончательно зачищенный сегодня волчанский котел. С ним уже тогда все было понятно, поэтому решили не ждать.
Финальные две недели агонии в хронику не попали, как не попало и название операции: «Медвежий угол».
▸ По-русски в нашем ВК
▸ Оригинал на английском
▸ Все статьи
Понял, кажется, почему у меня лютый испанский кринж от того, как в райском саду ведут дела. Потому что выглядит это так, как будто пятилетние дети сели играть в политику.
Такая непосредственность.
Я все-таки хочу разобрать это интервью лондонской Financial Times, потому что оно имеет шанс стать вехой. Пожалуй, впервые Зеленский настолько прямо, в открытую бросает вызов не только Трампу, но в целом США.
На протяжении полутора лет при помощи европейцев Зеленскому удавалось более-менее успешно петлять. На бесчисленные требования из Белого дома украинский лидер (читай – европейская антироссийская коалиция) отвеча…
Итак, Зеленский метнулся кабанчиком в Лондон, после чего открытым текстом послал Трампа и заявил, что будет снова бить по российским НПЗ, а если Трамп хочет, чтобы Зеленский не бил – пускай дает ракеты к патриотам (две версии произошедшего – в нашем лучшем в галактике экспресс-канале).
Прям интересно, чем ответит Донни. Не верю, что он такое спустит с рук, и не особо верю, что у него получится заставить Зеленского д…
custom 5417949270781215145522
Signed Sergei Poletaev
Showing the 12 most recent of 98 posts we hold for @vatfor. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Posts edited after publishing
@vatfor edited 11 posts after it first published — the same permalink now carries different wording than the one this register originally read, caught because our own crawl held a copy of the earlier text.
An edit is not deception. Typo fixes, price updates and corrections look exactly like this too — this register can tell you the wording changed and when, not why. How this is measured.
First edit seen
9 August 2026
Most recent edit
19 October 2026
Forward network
Republished by
Channels on the register that have forwarded this channel's posts into their own feed.
Built only from forwarded posts we have actually read, on both sides. Coverage is early and deliberately incomplete: a missing link means we have not read the post that would prove it, never that the relationship does not exist. Counts are distinct forwarded posts observed, so they only ever go up as we read more.
Mentions
Named by 70 registered channels — every channel on the register whose own posts have named this one, by its current username or any other username it currently holds, merged from two separately captured readings of the same fact so a namer caught by only one of them is not missed and a namer both caught is not counted twice. A username this channel has since dropped is not matched — that handle may belong to someone else now, and crediting today’s namer to yesterday’s owner would misattribute it. The 24 listed below are the most frequent namers; the rest are counted above but not each listed.
Named by
Channels on the register whose posts name this channel's handle.
A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.
Handles this channel named that no longer answer
Dead references
2
handles named in this channel’s posts, vacant today
Evidenced gone
0
we ourselves saw one of these resolve, at some point
Never seen alive
2
vacant every time we have ever looked
@vatfor named 2 handles that resolve to nothing today. That is a fact about the reference, not necessarily a fact about the handle’s history — see the two groups below.
Most of these may never have existed as a live channel at all. A handle a channel names can be a typo, an aspirational name nobody registered, or a channel that was already gone before this one ever mentioned it. Unless a row below is marked evidenced, all we know is that it references a handle that is not a live channel today — not that anything “died”. How this is measured.
Never seen alive
References a handle that is not a live channel — we have no record it ever was one.
@sputniklive named in 17 posts, 8 August 2026 – 24 October 2026
@rt_russian named in 8 posts, 1 October 2026 – 24 October 2026
Channels Telegram recommends alongside this one
Telegram’s own answer, not this register’s. When this register asks Telegram’s API what is similar to this channel, this is the list it returns, in the exact order Telegram returns it — never re-sorted by subscribers or by anything else this register measures. The relationship, and the order, are Telegram’s; we record them and date them, and make no claim of our own about which of these channels actually resemble this one.
Россия в глобальной политике @ru_global · 54,866#1
Read from Telegram’s recommendation API, most recently 5 September 2026. Telegram holds a list like this for a small and growing share of the register — how this is measured, and why most channel pages show nothing here.
Appears in Telegram’s recommendations for other channels
The reverse of the list above, and a different kind of signal. This does not require this channel to have ever been asked about directly — each row below is a channel we DID ask Telegram about, whose Telegram-generated list happened to include this one. A channel can appear here with an empty list above it, because being named by someone else’s query is independent of having been queried itself.
Россия в глобальной политике @ru_global · 54,866 Telegram ranks this channel #1 of 92 here — alongside 91 others — read 24 August 2026
Алексей Исаев. «Железный ветер» @iron_wind · 33,731 Telegram ranks this channel #10 of 91 here — alongside 90 others — read 4 September 2026
Пинта разума @pintofmind · 60,120 Telegram ranks this channel #13 of 92 here — alongside 91 others — read 22 August 2026
Мэйдэй. Хроника пикирования. @mayday_7700 · 23,578 Telegram ranks this channel #15 of 87 here — alongside 86 others — read 18 September 2026
Primakov @evgenyprimakov · 19,504 Telegram ranks this channel #16 of 91 here — alongside 90 others — read 30 September 2026
Оперативная линия @operline_ru · 40,913 Telegram ranks this channel #17 of 87 here — alongside 86 others — read 30 August 2026
историк-алкоголик @istrkalkglk · 122,514 Telegram ranks this channel #17 of 87 here — alongside 86 others — read 14 August 2026
Коты и кошка Крамника @kramnikcat · 39,050 Telegram ranks this channel #18 of 91 here — alongside 90 others — read 31 August 2026
Грокс @groks · 42,514 Telegram ranks this channel #24 of 94 here — alongside 93 others — read 29 August 2026
ИА "Стекломой" @ia_steklomoy · 109,610 Telegram ranks this channel #24 of 85 here — alongside 84 others — read 14 August 2026
Мараховское время @vmarahovsky · 60,615 Telegram ranks this channel #34 of 92 here — alongside 91 others — read 22 August 2026
Алексей Наумов. Внешпол @vneshpol · 21,356 Telegram ranks this channel #36 of 93 here — alongside 92 others — read 24 September 2026
Shadow policy @shadow_policy · 30,652 Telegram ranks this channel #38 of 93 here — alongside 92 others — read 6 September 2026
Кримсон Дайджест @crimsondigest · 141,256 Telegram ranks this channel #41 of 92 here — alongside 91 others — read 13 August 2026
artjockey @artjockey · 82,549 Telegram ranks this channel #42 of 87 here — alongside 86 others — read 18 August 2026
Глебсмит @glebsmith77 · 28,130 Telegram ranks this channel #45 of 94 here — alongside 93 others — read 10 September 2026
artjockey заметки @artjockey_lite · 40,548 Telegram ranks this channel #49 of 88 here — alongside 87 others — read 30 August 2026
bmpd @bmpd_cast · 46,721 Telegram ranks this channel #49 of 86 here — alongside 85 others — read 27 August 2026
Книжный импорт @importknig · 35,449 Telegram ranks this channel #57 of 93 here — alongside 92 others — read 2 September 2026
ЧАДАЕВ @chadayevru · 101,384 Telegram ranks this channel #57 of 90 here — alongside 89 others — read 16 August 2026
Карманов без Китая @kabezki · 38,728 Telegram ranks this channel #61 of 85 here — alongside 84 others — read 31 August 2026
Spydell_finance @spydell_finance · 131,046 Telegram ranks this channel #61 of 92 here — alongside 91 others — read 13 August 2026
"Нефтегазовая игра" с Александром Фроловым @OilGasGame · 24,861 Telegram ranks this channel #62 of 94 here — alongside 93 others — read 15 September 2026
Пробковый шлем @pithhelmet · 23,244 Telegram ranks this channel #63 of 93 here — alongside 92 others — read 19 September 2026
This channel appears in 41 seed channels' Telegram-generated recommendation lists in total, of which the 24 where it ranks highest are shown above. Each is Telegram’s list for THAT channel, not this one — see how this is measured.
Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 24 October 2026 — this
entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“Ватфор | Автострадный think tank” (@vatfor), 31,961 subscribers as measured 24 October 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/vatfor.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.
